2014 Election forecast - a post-election analysis

Conservative Statistical Post-Election Audits

There are many sources of error in counting votes: the apparent winner might not be the rightful winner. Hand tallies of the votes in a random sample of precincts can be used to test the hypothesis that a full manual recount would find a different outcome. This paper develops a conservative sequential test based on the vote-counting errors found in a hand tally of a simple or stratified random ...

Pre-electoral Coalitions and Post-election Bargaining1

We study a game-theoretic model where political parties can form coalitions both before and after the elections. Before election, coalitions can commit to a seat-sharing arrangement, but not to a policy or to a division of rents from o¢ ce; coalition members are free to break up and join other coalitions after the election. Equilibrium pre-electoral coalitions are not necessarily made up of the...

Pre - electoral Coalitions and Post - election Bargaining ∗

We study a game-theoretic model where three political parties (left, median and right) can form coalitions both before and after the election. Before the election, coalitions can commit to a seat-sharing arrangement, but not to a policy platform or a division of rents from office; coalition members are free to break up and join other coalitions after the election. Equilibrium pre-electoral coal...

Election Reform After the 2000 Election

Pre-Election Testing and Post-Election Audit of Optical Scan Voting Terminal Memory Cards

Optical scan electronic voting machines employ software components that are customized for each specific election. Such software components are critical from a security and integrity point of view, as they define ballot layout and outcome reporting facilities. The possibility of these components to be tampered with presents a major concern as incorrect election results may be produced due to ei...